1
MS.c. in Futures Studies, Toloue Mehr Institute of Higher Education, Qom, Iran
2
Assistant Professor, Faculty of Theology, University of Allameh Tabataba’i, Tehran, Iran
3
MS.c. in Islamic Ethics, Army University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the demographic futures of Qom province by observation and scenario method. Population forecasts of the United Nations Population Division for countries around the world indicate the population of Iran (Upstream population of Qom province) According to the three UN scenarios, namely the lower limit, the upper limit and the upper limit, by 1420, the population will be 87.7, 96.8 and 106 million, respectively. According to the modified scenario in this study, the population of Qom province is also predicted to be 1490 000, q1720 000, 1600 000 The population is predicted to reach about 1700,000 by 1420. The results of the present study showed fertility below the replacement level (With q1/2 live births per mother) In Qom province, maintaining this power requires planning and wants to become enlightened in managing Qom in Qom province. Improving family solidarity and reinforcing more family-oriented religious and Islamic values will help boost fertility and repair the age-old population of the province.
azizi Shabbo,H. , Banaee,A. and Nosrati,A. (2019). Possible and Desirable Future of Population Changes in Qom Province during 2011-2041. Journal of Strategic Management and Future Studies, 1(2), 219-245.
MLA
azizi Shabbo,H. , , Banaee,A. , and Nosrati,A. . "Possible and Desirable Future of Population Changes in Qom Province during 2011-2041", Journal of Strategic Management and Future Studies, 1, 2, 2019, 219-245.
HARVARD
azizi Shabbo H., Banaee A., Nosrati A. (2019). 'Possible and Desirable Future of Population Changes in Qom Province during 2011-2041', Journal of Strategic Management and Future Studies, 1(2), pp. 219-245.
CHICAGO
H. azizi Shabbo, A. Banaee and A. Nosrati, "Possible and Desirable Future of Population Changes in Qom Province during 2011-2041," Journal of Strategic Management and Future Studies, 1 2 (2019): 219-245,
VANCOUVER
azizi Shabbo H., Banaee A., Nosrati A. Possible and Desirable Future of Population Changes in Qom Province during 2011-2041. JSMF, 2019; 1(2): 219-245.
