The current research was conducted with the aim of investigating Iran's primary energy portfolio, its future, and recommendations for optimization. The current research is qualitative and from the point of view of the goal of the applied type, which is written with the scenario writing method with the GBN approach as the most common and practical method in the field of the research topic and by integrating and combining some of the main steps in accordance with the content of the research, the process of developing scenarios is written in five steps. has been to collect data, primary and secondary data have been used, which have been used appropriately. First, researchers examine secondary sources (upstream documents, policy reports, research projects, articles, and websites) and provide primary information, and then consult with experts in the field of energy in Iran who have sufficient knowledge about the field of energy issues in order to accurately explain the issue and understand The main components and variables are discussed and finally, the PESTLE analysis method was used to identify different dimensions of key factors within the panel. For this purpose, based on the studies and the experiences of the member countries of the International Energy Agency, the standard policy framework and the requirements for its realization were introduced and the strategies of the national energy document were evaluated and reviewed based on that. Finally, it can be said that the energy market is affected by three categories of economic, technological, and institutional factors that are interdependent and, in many cases, it is difficult to separate them, but it can be claimed that the energy market is influenced by four main factors. Population, technology, environmental priorities, and international governance.