Journal of Strategic Management and Future Studies

Journal of Strategic Management and Future Studies

Future Studies with the Scenario Method in the Health System

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Ph.D. Student in Future Studies, Eyvanakey, University, Eyvanakey, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Technology and Strategy, Faculty of Management and Industrial Engineering, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
This research was conducted with the aim of analyzing and predicting the future of the health system. The main goal of this research is to identify the key factors and the main drivers influencing the future of the health system and develop possible scenarios for the development and improvement of this system. This research has used the combined methods of Delphi and Micmac to collect and analyze data. At first, by forming a Delphi panel and conducting several rounds of surveys, the opinions of health experts and specialists were collected and analyzed. Then, using the mix-and-match technique, the mutual effects between the variables were analyzed and the key variables were identified. The results showed that population aging, technological advances, economic and social inequalities, changes in disease patterns and government policies are among the key factors and main drivers affecting the future of the health system. Analyzing the data with the Micmac technique showed that technological advances and government policies have the most impact. Developing effective strategies for the development and improvement of the health system requires attention to the key factors and the main drivers identified. Developed scenarios can help decision makers and policy makers to make more effective plans with a better understanding of the future.
Keywords