The automobile industry, as one of the most important industrial sectors of Iran, has been able to play an effective role in the economy through the establishment of extensive connections with economic sub-sectors such as metal, textile, chemical, and so on. An overview of the automaker's plans shows that financial management, investment, and profitability have been underestimated in long-term plans. The purpose of the present research is to develop credible scenarios for the automotive industry. To this end, the key drivers behind the industry were first developed and, after identifying the most important drivers, including "government investment in the automotive industry" and "economic sanctions", the scenarios of the industry were identified in the future. Valid scenarios are scenarios that are consistent with current human knowledge. After identifying and extracting the ultimate factors influencing the future of investment and profitability in the automotive sector, four scenarios with the names of utopia, reliance on inside, outlook and disaster were identified.